FluOutlook provides a visual interface to explore numerical forecasts of the current influenza season in North America and Europe through maps and charts.
Activity data and forecasts are updated according to the availability of data from the official influenza surveillance systems in each country.
In particular, for Europe:
- Activity data are automatically collected from the ECDC website of surveillance of infectious diseases.
- The epidemic thresholds for influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) are calculated with the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM), implemented by WHO and by ECDC.
Maps show the current influenza activity level (below or above baseline) in each country and indicate the observed trend based on data reported by the surveillance in the last two weeks (increasing, stable or decreasing).
Details on the forecasts for a single country appear by clicking on it. The chart shows the weekly influenza activity reported by the official surveillance system, indicated by white dots.
On the Forecast page users can explore the flu forecasts for a given country, at different weeks through a sliding bar and by selecting different forecasting methods. Below the chart, a table provides statistical confidence intervals for the forecasted peak week and peak incidence for those methods that allow to get such projections.
Click here to read more about the forecasting methods.
Sources of the influenza surveillance data
- United States. Center for Disease Control and Prevention
- Italy, France, United Kingdom, Ireland, Netherlands, Spain. European Center for Disease Control
- Germany. Robert Koch Institute
- Canada. Public Health Agency of Canada
- New Zealand. Institute of Environmental Science and Research
- Australia. ASPREN National GP Disease Surveillance Network
- Chile. Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile